Deal evaluation · EnergyNet lot 158309 · Crude Cut № 006
01 · the deal
Here's the dataroom zip. Before anything else: what's in this deal?
Where it is · the five pads and their counties · pads from the public record, Kale placed from its section, township and range
pad · wells · working interest county · hover a pad · drag to pan · the buttons or ⌘/Ctrl + scroll to zoom
The interests are small and the wells are young. Six of them are the deal: the four Dreadnaught wells in Loving County and the two Burton Flat wells in Eddy County are 92% of the seller's value and 83% of last year's cash. The twelve Howard County wells carry 0.2% to 0.6% and add up to 5%. Kale is 3.5% of the value and 13% of the cash — a seven-year life against thirty-plus on the Permian wells, and the interest halves at payout.
Where the value and the cash sit · share of the seller's PV10 vs share of last-twelve-months operating income · by package
share of seller's PV10 share of LTM operating income · LOS, 12 months ending May 2026 · hover a bar
| Package · operator | Where · zone | Wells | WI · NRI | Gross oil, bbl/d | LTM op. income | Seller PV10 |
|---|
RESULT: gross oil is the state record, Mar–May 2026 (Kale: the LOS); LTM operating income is the LOS Net workbook, 12 months ending 05/2026; PV10 is the seller's oneliner. The room's own documents disagree on two interests: Burton is 3.83% WI in the teaser, 3.58% / 3.63% in the well list, 3.50% / 3.54% in the deck, and Devon pays 2.69% / 2.72% NRI; Kale is 20.50% WI in the teaser, 28.125% before payout and 16.875% after in the well list. In the room: 51 files in 12 folders — teaser, well list, LOS gross and net by well (Jan 2024 – May 2026), 15 check stubs, 15 JIBs, the seller's economics database, monthly production, production reports and curves, a consent schedule, two New Mexico pooling orders, a 2004 ownership report, 2005 and 2006 drilling title opinions, one federal lease data sheet.
Next The wells themselves, one development unit at a time, against the seller's forecast and ours.
02 · the asset
Next What the wells are worth: the forecast priced at the strip, net to the interests.
03 · the valuation
Value · net to the interests
Price deck
Discount rate
Curves
Sensitivity ·
By development unit · strip · 10% ·
Net revenue by month · reported, then forecast ·
reported · LOS, after production tax and deductions forecast · same definition · oil $/bbl under each month
04 · data room issues
05 · ARIES
Reading this database · analyst notes
Scenario · categories · forecast sources
Integrity checks
Properties ·
Economic assumptions · identical lines clustered across properties
Side files · external economic lines · the price deck lives here
Lookup tables
Read with the Crude Code aries-explorer kit; every rollup is the kit's. The forecasts and assumptions are the seller's own — displayed, not endorsed.
Run this on your own dataroom
Everything above happened in one connected Claude session with the room's zip: file it, extract it, read the seller's economics, hold the forecast against the state record, value it. The recipe that ships with this cut lists the asks, the scripts underneath, and what to check.
crudecode.devThe room: EnergyNet lot 158309, Alchemist Energy LLC, a wellbore-only non-op package: 20 active horizontal producers in Howard and Loving Counties TX, Eddy County NM and Kingfisher County OK, effective 08/01/2026, auction closed 08/18/2026. 51 files in 12 folders. Wells and operators are public record; the seller's interests, statements and economics are the room's, shown here only in aggregate. The seller's economics file is the one cut № 002 read.
Definitions. Operating income tie: LOS net revenue minus net operating expense minus workover, by month, summed over the 12 months ending 05/2026, vs the teaser's 61,331 $/mo × 12. Seller's curve vs reported: cumulative gross oil 01/2025 → the last public month, the seller's forecast curve vs state-reported, per well and per development unit, as a percent difference. PV: present value of net cash flow to the room's interests from the 09/2026 effective month, at the discount rate shown, in dollars. Share of the lot: a package's PV10 ÷ the lot's PV10 from the seller's oneliner; a package's operating income ÷ the lot's, LOS Net workbook, 12 months ending 05/2026.
01 · the deal: the deal sheet is the room's well list (API, operator, county, zone, lateral, first production, before- and after-payout working and net revenue interests) joined to the LOS group totals (gross and net workbooks, "<package> Total" tabs) and the seller's oneliner (PV10, net MBoe, life by property). Gross oil and gas at the effective date are the state record's Mar–May 2026 average for the 18 public wells and the LOS gross workbook for the two Oklahoma wells. The teaser's interests, reserves summary and dates were read from the teaser PDF.
02 · the asset: development units are the room's asset groups (a pad or DSU). History is state-reported monthly oil and gas for the 18 TX / NM wells (warehouse cut 06/2026; SM Energy reported through 05/2026, so every unit's window ends there) and the operator's daily table, rolled to months, for the two Oklahoma wells. The seller's curves are the hyperbolic forecasts in the seller's economics file, anchored 01/2025, integrated month by month (Np(t) = qi/((1−b)Di)·(1−(1+b·Di·t)^(1−1/b)), effective-annual declines converted to nominal monthly, 7%/yr terminal). Crude Code's forecast is the committed curves of run cade8c38 from the 08/2026 anchor. Interests shown are the valuation engine's interest table for the 18 and the seller's pre-payout line for Kale.
03 · the valuation: two deal_forecast_wells runs and two deal_valuation runs with identical economics. Run bf0af7e5 commits the 18 seller curves re-anchored to 08/2026 (qi′ = qi/(1+b·Di·T)^(1/b), Di′ = Di/(1+b·Di·T), b unchanged, T = 19 months) — "seller's curves" above. Run cade8c38 is Crude Code's forecast: Dreadnaught A/B/C/E and Burton 621H/622H individually, Horton (8) and Shooter (4) as summed-stream cohorts; anchors 08/2026, qi from the most recent stable segment, Di from the well where it has expressed one and from the population where it has not, b 1.0, uptime 0.93–0.96, struck months named in each rationale. Economics: NYMEX strip settled 09/04/2026, oil −$2.00/bbl and gas −$0.25/MMBtu differentials, severance 5.46%, gathering / processing / transport 7.57% of revenue, opex $13.19/bbl, no capital, 5%/yr terminal decline, 360-month horizon; the deck × rate cube is the engine's (flat oil decks hold gas on the strip path). Seller PV10 per unit is from the oneliner export and ties to the R&E PDF; the seller's number is at their 06/30/2026 strip.
04 · data room issues: the seven notes the extraction wrote, carried verbatim from the review: forecast staleness (02), the Burton shut-in (02), interest mismatches (05 and the room's statements), the two production histories in the seller's file (05), operating-income trend (LOS), realized gas at Waha (check stubs, Mar–May 2026), netting and the Kale reversion (JIBs, section 7).
05 · ARIES: the room's Access database (alchemist energy-20260721.accdb) read with the Crude Code aries-explorer kit exactly as a connected session would: aries_triage.py inventoried all 60 tables and dumped the core ones; aries_payload.py decoded qualifier 2026Q3 — reserve categories, forecast sources, assumption clusters (identical lines counted across properties), side files, lookups, section-7 interests against the master table, and the integrity checks. The analyst notes use only the kit's digest. Nothing in this tab is adopted into the valuation; tab 03 uses the seller's curves only through the re-anchored translation described above.
What we'd push back on ourselves. Kale is outside both runs, so the 18-well value is compared with the seller's 18-well PV10, and the seller's own $78k for Kale is carried as a note. The seller's curves stand at the effective date within 2% of the record, so the two curve sets differ on slope, not level: Dreadnaught's recent declines against Burton's flat post-shut-in year. The engine models no NGL yield and no shrink — the seller's economics do — and our opex is a $/bbl proxy for the LOS, not the LOS. Kale's payout reversion and the Burton interest mismatch are in the seven notes below.