Crude Cut № 007 · WTI futures · what a 2027 barrel costs, and how fast that is changing
Since the Strait of Hormuz closed, WTI's front month has been to $113, back to $69, and up to $101 again. This page is about a different number: what the market will pay today for a barrel delivered in 2027. That price has built $16.51 in 199 days — $2.49 every 30 days on average — and it has not been a straight line.
The build · Cal-2027 strip over its February baseline · $/bbl · settlement days
March did half the work: +$8.47 in the first month. April added $4 and May stalled. June gave $7.29 back as the front month collapsed. July, August and September rebuilt it, and the strip set its high — $78.36 on September 10, with the front month still $11 under its own April peak.
Cal-2027 strip · dollars over the February baseline · daily · zero = $61.51
Cal-2027 build high-water mark average pace, $2.49 / 30 days · hover for the settle, the build and the high to date
RESULT: $61.51 → $78.02, WITH ONE GIVE-BACK. Month-end Cal-2027: MAR $69.98 · APR $74.21 · MAY $73.97 · JUN $66.68 · JUL $71.26 · AUG $74.37 · 14 SEP $78.02. Low since 2 MAR: $66.43 on 26 JUN, still +$4.92. For scale, the front month over the same 199 days: $65.28 → $112.95 (7 APR) → $68.55 (6 JUL) → $101.39, +$36.11, with 19 settlement days at or above $100. In 2022 the same measure on Cal-2023 built $20.37 in the 105 days after the invasion and was back at its baseline by day 211; Cal-2027 at day 196 is at its high. n = 176 settlement days, 136 since 2 MAR.
The rate · change in Cal-2027 from one month's last settle to the next · $/bbl
The same build, cut at month-ends. Three months of building, two of giving back, three more of building. The average pace is $2.49 per 30 days; no month has run at the average. March ran at more than three times it.
Month-by-month build · Cal-2027, last settle to last settle · $/bbl
built gave back average pace, $2.49 · the settle at each month-end sits under the month · hover for detail
| Month | Last settle | Cal-2027 | Change | Build to date | Month avg | Front month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEB · baseline 13–27 | 27 FEB | $61.51 | — | +$0.00 | $61.51 | $65.28 |
| MAR | 31 MAR | $69.98 | +$8.47 | +$8.47 | $69.80 | $101.38 |
| APR | 30 APR | $74.21 | +$4.23 | +$12.70 | $72.15 | $105.07 |
| MAY | 29 MAY | $73.97 | −$0.24 | +$12.46 | $75.35 | $87.36 |
| JUN | 30 JUN | $66.68 | −$7.29 | +$5.17 | $71.97 | $69.50 |
| JUL | 31 JUL | $71.26 | +$4.58 | +$9.75 | $70.94 | $84.67 |
| AUG | 31 AUG | $74.37 | +$3.11 | +$12.87 | $72.86 | $85.76 |
| SEP | 14 SEP | $78.02 | +$3.65 | +$16.51 | $76.34 | $101.39 |
Inside 2027 · twelve contracts · FEB 13–27 baseline → 14 SEP settle
In February the twelve 2027 contracts sat within a dollar of each other. Today the year is $16 backwardated from January to December. The market is pricing the disruption into the first half of 2027 and letting the second half drift up more slowly — the five contracts through May set their highs on September 10; the seven from June on are still below the highs they set in mid-May. Cal-2028 has built $8.79, about half of Cal-2027.
Build by 2027 delivery month · 14 SEP settle minus the February baseline · $/bbl
set its high 10 SEP still below its mid-May high · the 14 SEP settle sits under each month · hover for detail
| Contract | Baseline | 14 SEP | Build | % | High set |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAN 2027 | $62.22 | $88.65 | +$26.43 | +42% | 10 SEP |
| FEB 2027 | $61.98 | $85.41 | +$23.43 | +38% | 10 SEP |
| MAR 2027 | $61.79 | $82.84 | +$21.05 | +34% | 10 SEP |
| APR 2027 | $61.64 | $80.65 | +$19.01 | +31% | 10 SEP |
| MAY 2027 | $61.54 | $78.79 | +$17.25 | +28% | 10 SEP |
| JUN 2027 | $61.46 | $77.21 | +$15.75 | +26% | 18 MAY |
| JUL 2027 | $61.37 | $75.89 | +$14.52 | +24% | 18 MAY |
| AUG 2027 | $61.29 | $74.80 | +$13.51 | +22% | 18 MAY |
| SEP 2027 | $61.22 | $73.92 | +$12.70 | +21% | 18 MAY |
| OCT 2027 | $61.19 | $73.22 | +$12.03 | +20% | 18 MAY |
| NOV 2027 | $61.19 | $72.67 | +$11.48 | +19% | 12 MAY |
| DEC 2027 | $61.18 | $72.20 | +$11.02 | +18% | 12 MAY |
The scorecard · as of the 14 SEP 2026 settle
Rebuild this cut
Every number on this page traces to a query that runs verbatim in a Crude Code-connected Claude session, against the same NYMEX settles. Pull the recipe, re-run it on today's curve, move the baseline, swap in Cal-2028 or Henry Hub — or price a well set at the February 27 strip and again at today's, and see what 199 days did to a 2027 revenue line.
> get_cut "007" — the recipe, in your session
crudecode.devThe metric. Cal-2027 strip — the simple average of the settles of the twelve January–December 2027 NYMEX WTI delivery months on a trade date, $/bbl. A trade date counts only if it is a weekday, all twelve settled, and the nearest contract delivers within 75 days. Front month — the contract with the nearest delivery month after the trade date; its settle. Baseline — the mean of each series over the ten settlement days February 13–27, 2026, the last sessions before the March 2 gap-up. Build — Cal-2027 on a trade date minus its baseline. Build rate — build divided by calendar days since February 27, stated per 30 days. Month-by-month build — the change in Cal-2027 from the last settlement day of one month to the last of the next; March is measured from the baseline, September through the 14th. High-water mark — the highest build to date since February 27. The 2022 comparison applies the same definitions to Cal-2023 against a February 10–23, 2022 baseline, after dropping any contract print that kinks the curve by more than $6 against its neighbouring months.
The data. market.futures in the Crude Code DB: NYMEX WTI settles keyed by trade date and delivery month, daily. 178 weekday trade dates from 1 JAN to 14 SEP 2026; 176 pass the qualifying-day rule — 23 JAN (a partial curve) and 3 APR (Good Friday, no settles) do not. Sunday-session rows and NaN prints are excluded. A curve-kink scan flags zero bad prints in 2026 and 162 in FEB–OCT 2022; the 2022 comparison drops those and requires nine clean contracts a day. When this cut was first run on 15 SEP, 17 trading days between 10 FEB and 18 MAY were missing from the table; they were backfilled from the source the same day, and every number here is from the completed table.
What we'd push back on ourselves. The baseline is a choice: ten days in late February. Anchor in January and the build is $19.00; use 27 FEB alone and it is $15.74. The average pace is a straight line drawn through a series that is anything but — the monthly bars are the honest version of the same number, and month-ends are snapshots (30 MAR $73.06, 31 MAR $69.98). Dollars, not percent: $16.51 on $61.51 is 26.9%; 2022's peak build was 26.3% of its base — closer in percent than in dollars. The front month rolls to the next contract roughly monthly, so its quoted path carries small roll-day steps; the strip does not roll. One analog is an anecdote. Event dating — the closure, the blockade, the summer easing — is from press coverage, not the database; the analysis anchors on the price series.
Sources. NYMEX WTI settlement prices via the Crude Code DB (market.futures), trade dates 1 JAN 2022 – 14 SEP 2026. As-of: 14 SEP 2026 settle. Print 15 SEP 2026.